Danielle Smith's Summer of Sovereignty Has Hit a Brick Wall

 

 

Danielle Smith's sovereignty referendum vote has hit a brick wall! Unlike the Alberta Pension Plan Scheme or the Alberta Provincial police force, where the number of surveys answered was suppressed and withheld from Albertans until challenged to be released, this has significant public ramifications and is highly visible to everyone concerned.

Former Alberta Progressive Conservative MLA and Deputy Premier Thomas Lucaszuk has initiated the Forever Canadian movement by leading a petition opposing the Referendum. Upon completion, this petition is anticipated to be the largest single petition ever signed in Canadian history. Residents throughout the province have been participating in person to add their signatures in support of Alberta remaining within Canada. Distinct from online petitions, this initiative carries greater authority, as each signature must be accompanied by a corresponding address and provided in person.

“The business community does not like uncertainty”, Lukaszuk stated in an Interview with the Canadian Press earlier this week. Lukaszuk also put forward that there is a prime example of just what this entails, referencing the two referendums and Nationalist sentiments in Quebec. “There is a reason why the Bank of Montreal’s Headquarters are in Toronto”, Lukaszuk stated. This may not have been the strongest of arguments, but it did do justice to the complete overnight shift of Canadian Corporate headquarters away from the powerhouse which was once Montreal.

Danielle Smith’s advocacy for Alberta’s independence appears to be diminishing in impact, as more Albertans support Lukaszuk’s petition. With three provincial by-elections and the national election of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in Battle River-Crowfoot, Albertans have not demonstrated an interest in the sovereigntist perspective. Smith continues to emphasise her opposition to Ottawa during public appearances; however, attendance at these events is declining, and she occasionally receives negative responses from audiences. As she travels across the province this summer to promote her position, it appears that the idea is not resonating with the broader Alberta population.

Smith has relinquished what was traditionally considered the Conservatives' primary strategic advantage—an approach that successive Premiers have employed to heighten public engagement and reinforce regional tensions between Eastern and Western Canada. Notably, Smith appears to have overlooked the changing demographic landscape of Alberta; many residents originate from other provinces or countries. The strategies that resonated when Alberta’s population stood at 2.5 million are increasingly irrelevant in a province now exceeding 5 million inhabitants and continuing to grow.

Smith may also distinctly recall the 1980s, when Alberta's oil sector experienced a significant downturn as OPEC increased production, leading to large surpluses in petroleum. This development adversely affected Alberta’s economy, compelling many residents, including myself, to relocate—primarily to Ontario—in pursuit of economic stability. While many eventually returned, they did so with a strengthened sense of national identity that exceeded provincial affiliation.

Thomas Lucaszuk has notably influenced the political landscape prior to Naheed Nenshi launching his summer campaign. As Danielle Smith continues her efforts to engage Albertans on the topic of independence, she has experienced a decline in support for the UPC, with increasing numbers transitioning toward Nenshi's NDP, which promotes a more inclusive vision of Alberta as a place for all Canadians to work and thrive.

A lack of responsiveness to a dynamic and increasingly outspoken electorate may not benefit Smith or the United Conservative Party. Alberta has evolved, and the traditional East versus West narratives hold less influence for many Albertans. There is a prevailing commitment to shaping the nation collaboratively, with Alberta positioned as an equal leader in Canada’s progress. Should Smith fail to recognize or address these shifts, the prospects for future success of the UCP could be significantly diminished.